The World Bank has maintained its projection for Ghana’s economic growth at 4.8 per cent for 2026, citing resilient economic performance, falling inflation and progress in the country’s debt restructuring programme.
In its October 2026 Africa Economic Update: Building AI-Readiness report, the Bank forecasts that Ghana’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth will increase slightly to 4.9 per cent in 2027 and 5.0 per cent in 2028.
The projections follow economic growth of 5.8 per cent in 2024 and 6.0 per cent in 2025. While the 2026 forecast represents a slowdown compared with the previous two years, the World Bank said economic activity remains strong, supported by domestic demand and the continued expansion of digital services.
Ghana’s economy recorded 6.0 per cent year-on-year growth in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 6.6 per cent during the same period in 2025. Investment was a major contributor, rising by 53.0 per cent, as domestic demand remained strong.
The services sector recorded 8.0 per cent growth and contributed nearly three-fifths of total GDP expansion. Information and communications technology also recorded significant growth of 30.9 per cent.
Industry expanded by 4.3 per cent, up from 2.4 per cent a year earlier, supported partly by increased oil and gas production. Agriculture, however, recorded slower growth of 3.9 per cent, down from 7.1 per cent, largely due to a significant decline in fishing activity.
Business confidence has also shown signs of improvement. Ghana’s S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index increased to 50.8 in August, from 49.2 in July. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, with the World Bank attributing the improvement to stronger customer demand and increased recruitment.
Inflation is expected to continue declining, falling from 22.9 per cent in 2024 and 14.2 per cent in 2025 to an estimated 8.0 per cent in 2026. The Bank expects inflation to remain around that level through 2028.
Despite the decline in inflation, the Bank of Ghana has maintained its policy rate at 14 per cent, reflecting a cautious approach amid potential risks associated with global energy prices.
Debt restructuring boosts investor confidence
The World Bank described Ghana’s debt restructuring process as an important achievement in the country’s economic recovery.
Public debt declined from 70.1 per cent of GDP at the end of 2024 to 48.8 per cent in 2025, before rising moderately to an estimated 52.6 per cent in 2026. Meanwhile, the fiscal deficit is projected to fall to 2.2 per cent of GDP this year.
Ghana was also reclassified as having a moderate risk of debt distress for both its external and overall debt during the 2026 Article IV consultation.
The World Bank said the development represents a major improvement, noting that Ghana is the first country since the wave of debt distress that began in 2022 to move completely out of the high-risk category.
The completion of the SADEREA debt exchange in July 2026, alongside continued fiscal consolidation under the International Monetary Fund programme, has contributed to improved investor confidence.
Ghana’s sovereign spreads declined sharply from about 2,828 basis points in 2023 to 239 basis points by August 2026.
The World Bank linked the decline to the completion of the debt restructuring programme, continued fiscal reforms and Ghana’s improved debt-risk classification.
Lower sovereign spreads generally indicate that investors perceive less risk in lending to a country, potentially reducing the cost of borrowing and improving access to international capital.
mfnewsgh.com
